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College football picks by Bud Elliott

Every week, Bud Elliott picks spreads and totals across the country. Track those here, along with the status of various futures throughout the year.

All wagers are at -110 odds and for one unit unless otherwise noted. My picks are in bold, with that team’s spread attached.

Overall Season record: +$2471 | ROI: 5.4%

Against the spread: 196-160-9 | 55.1% ATS (+$1981) | ROI: 5.1%

Futures: +$490 | ROI 7.0%

Beat closing line: Yes 73% | Even 10% | No 17%

I often tell readers that the best bets can be found in the opening lines on Sunday afternoons. Lines tend to be sharper after they’ve been bet all week, so most of my plays are made early in the week. The lines listed below are subject to change during the week.

Of course, if you’re trying to bet thousands of dollars on each game, the low limits (typically $250 to 500 max bets per game) early in the week can be a hindrance, but I’m figuring most of my readership is playing $100 per game or less.

All season win totals wagers are for regular season games only (no conference title games, no bowls).

Because I make these wagers throughout the week, I order them by when they were made. As the season goes on, you’ll be able to find older picks at the bottom of this page.

Rationale for the picks is provided in my weekly Sunday Twitch show, a replay of which will also be available here or below.

Bowl Games

My strategy of wagering early to capture value does not pair well with betting bowl games because the circumstances change leading up to the bowl with players electing to sit out, coaches changing jobs, etc. I do play the bowls in live and halftime wagering options, so follow to stay up to date.

2019 futures picks

+$490 | ROI 7.0%

  • Win total matchup: Louisville +3.5 v. Kentucky (-125)
  • Texas U9.5 wins (-145)
  • Troy O6.5 (-210)
  • Win total matchup: Ole Miss +3.5 v. Mississippi State (-125)
  • USF O6.5 wins (+102)
  • UCF U10 wins (-120)
  • Texas at Iowa State +1
  • Navy +20 at Notre Dame
  • Texas at Baylor +1.5
  • Georgia to win SEC East (-200)
  • North Carolina U4.5 wins (+145)
  • UTEP U3 wins (+100)
  • Win total matchup: Stanford -0.5 v. Cal (-130)
  • Win total matchup: Minnesota +1 v. Wisconsin
  • Penn State to win the Big Ten (+2500)
  • Win total matchup: Alabama -4.5 wins v. Tennessee (+110)
  • Florida U9 wins (-130)
  • Notre Dame U9.5 wins (-130)
  • Kentucky U6.5 wins (+135)
  • Ohio State to win the Big Ten (-375): To win 6 units (hedging PSU +2500 for B10)
  • Blue-Chip Ratio teams (except USC) to win the national title (-2000): A brief explanation here. BetOnline put up odds on one of the Blue Chip Ratio teams (except USC, for an unknown reason) winning the national title, as it has done several times in the past. -2000 is obviously a huge outlay, but I think the true price should be closer to -5000, so it’s a value.
  • Clemson to make CFB Playoff -(400)

Pool Picks

Many have asked for my picks for their college pick’em pools. I am basing these on Office Football Pools, which was the most requested site by readers. I am only showing my picks on games in which my numbers show value against the provided spread. If I don’t list a game, it is safe to say I do not have an opinion on it, so flip a coin. This record will not be tracked and these are not games I am actually wagering. These are intended to help those in a pinch who need to fill out their pools and don’t have much time to do so in a given week.

CHARLOTTE 49ERS (7-5) +6.5

KENT STATE (6-6) +7.5

SAN DIEGO ST. (9-3) -3.5

Liberty (7-5) +4.5

FLORIDA ATL. (10-3) +3.5

FIU (6-6) +2.5

#18 Boise St. (12-1) +3.5

#20 Appalachian State (12-1) -16.5

UCF (9-3) -17.5

BYU (7-5) -1.5

Louisiana Tech (9-3) +6.5

EASTERN MICH (6-6) +11.5

North Carolina (6-6) -4.5

WAKE FOREST (8-4) +4.5

TEXAS A&M (7-5) -6.5

#22 USC (8-4) +2.5

#24 Air Force (10-2) -2.5

IOWA ST. (7-5) +3.5

#13 PENN ST. (10-2) -6.5

#1 LSU (13-0) -13.5

#2 OHIO ST. (13-0) +2.5

WESTERN MICH (7-5) +3.5

Mississippi St. (6-6) -3.5

CALIFORNIA (7-5) -6.5

#6 FLORIDA (10-2) -14.5

Virginia Tech (8-4) -2.5

ARIZONA ST. (7-5) -3.5

#21 Navy (10-2) -2.5

GEORGIA ST. (7-5) +7.5

TEXAS (7-5) +7.5

#17 Michigan (9-3) +7.5

#16 Minnesota (10-2) +7.5

#11 WISCONSIN (10-3) -2.5

#8 BAYLOR (11-2) +7.5

#23 CINCINNATI (10-3) -6.5

TENNESSEE (7-5) -1.5

Ohio (6-6) -7.5

Southern Miss (7-5) +7.5

UL Lafayette (10-3) -13.5


Bud’s 2019 picks

Wager W | L | P Beat Close?
Wager W | L | P Beat Close?
Florida v. Miami U50.5 W Yes
Arizona v. Hawaii O70 W Even
Arizona at Hawaii +11 W Yes
Utah -5 at BYU W Even
Duke v. Alabama U60.5 W Yes
Oregon v. Auburn U58.5 W Yes
Virginia Tech -2 at BC (-120) L Yes
East Carolina +18 at NC State L Yes
Colorado v. Colorado State U65 L Yes
Oregon v. Auburn -3 W Yes
Texas State +33.5 at Texas A&M L No
Louisiana Tech +21 at Texas L Yes
FIU +3 at Tulane L Even
Tulsa at Michigan State -22.5 L Yes
Clemson -23.5 1H (-107) W Yes
Houston at Oklahoma U82.5 W Yes
Texas A&M at Clemson -20 L No
LSU -3.5 at Texas W Yes
UAB at Akron +11 P Yes
Old Dominion at VT -26 L Yes
Vanderbilt +9 at Purdue L Yes
West Virginia at Missouri -10.5 W Yes
Bowling Green +24 at Kansas State L No
Nebraska -7 (+100) at Colorado L No
Charlotte at App State -20.5 L Yes
Wyoming at Texas State +8.5 L Yes
BYU at Tennessee -2 L Yes
Coastal Carolina +10.5 at Kansas W Yes
Buffalo at Penn State -21 W Yes
UTEP at Texas Tech -33 W Yes
Cal at Washington -11 L Yes
Tulane at Auburn -18.5 L No
La Monroe at FSU -21 L Yes
Nevada +24.5 at Oregon L Yes
Arkansas at Ole Miss -6 W No
Air Force at Colorado -1.5 L Yes
Alabama at South Carolina +26 W Even
Arkansas State +31.5 at Georgia L No
Buffalo at Liberty +6.5 W Yes
Charlotte Over 43 points (team total) W Even
Colorado State +13.5 at Arkansas L Yes
Duke at Middle Tennessee +7 (-115) L Yes
East Carolina +9 at Navy L Yes
Eastern Michigan at Illinois Over 55 W Yes
EMU +11.5 at Illinois W Yes
Florida State at Virginia -7 P Even
Georgia State +12 at Western Michigan L Yes
Hawaii +23 at Washington L Yes
Iowa +1 at Iowa State W Yes
Kansas at Boston College -17 L Yes
LA Tech -7 at Bowling green W Yes
Marshall Under 27 points (team total) L Yes
Miami (Ohio) +16.5 at Cincinnati L No
Mississippi State Over 29 points (team total) L Even
NC State -6.5 at West Virginia L Yes
New Mexico State Under 17.5 points (team total) W Yes
NIU +14 at Nebraska L Even
Northwestern Under 35 points (team total) W Even
Oklahoma -17 at UCLA W Yes
Oklahoma at UCLA +24 L Yes
Oklahoma State -12 at Tulsa W Yes
Oklahoma State Over 39 points (team total) W Even
Pitt at Penn State -16.5 L Yes
Southern Miss +4 at Troy W Yes
Stanford at UCF -7 W Yes
TCU +1.5 at Purdue W Yes
Texas Tech -3 at Arizona L No
UNC at Wake Forest -3.5 (-105) W No
UNC at Wake Forest Over 64 L Yes
USC -2 at BYU L Yes
WKU vs. Louisville -7.5 (neutral site) W Yes
Houston at Tulane -1 W Yes
UL Lafayette +6.5 at Ohio W Yes
WMU +4 at Syracuse L Yes
Michigan at Wisconsin -3 W Yes
Toledo -5.5 at Colorado State W Even
New Mexico State at New Mexico -3 P Yes
Cal PK at Ole Miss W No
Georgia State at Texas State +1 W Yes
LSU -19 at Vanderbilt W Yes
Appalachian State +3 at UNC W Yes
WVU at Kansas +7 W Yes
Oregon -10 at Stanford W Yes
UCF/Pitt U59.5 L No
UConn/Indiana U58 W Yes
Temple/Buffalo U57.5 L Yes
Michigan State/Northwestern U40 L Yes
Troy/Akron O52.5 L Yes
Michigan/Wisconsin U51.5 W Yes
Cal Ole Miss U43.5 L Yes
AppSt/UNC O56.5 W Yes
S.Ala/UAB U49.5 W Yes
Michigan State -5.5 at Northwestern W Yes
Washington -6 at BYU W Yes
Auburn +4 at Texas A&M W Yes
Oklahoma State +7.5 (-115) at Texas W Yes
South Alabama +13 at UAB L Yes
Baylor -24.5 at Rice L Yes
Oregon at Stanford Under 58.5 W Yes
San Jose State at Arkansas Under 61.5 W Even
Arizona State +5 (-115) at Cal W Yes
Arkansas State/Troy O60.5 W No
Arkansas/Texas A&M U55 L No
Buffalo +5 at Miami (Ohio) L Yes
Cincinnati at Marshall +4 (-111) L Even
Coastal Carolina +17.5 (-115) at Appalachian State L Yes
Duke +6.5 at Virginia Tech W Yes
FAU +2.5 at Charlotte W Yes
Florida State Over 33 (team total) L Yes
Fresno -17 (-105) at New Mexico State L Yes
Georgia Tech/Temple U53 W Yes
Hawaii +2.5 at Nevada W Yes
Houston at North Texas +3 L Yes
Iowa State +3.5 at Baylor W Yes
Kansas State +7.5 at Oklahoma State L Yes
Middle Tennessee/Iowa O49.5 W Yes
Minnesota -1 at Purdue W Yes
New Mexico at Liberty -9 L No
Northwestern at Wisconsin -22 L Yes
Ohio State -15 at Nebraska W Yes
Ole Miss +35 at Alabama W No
Penn State -6.5 (-115) at Maryland W Even
San Jose State +24 at Air Force W Yes
SMU -6.5 at South Florida W Yes
Stanford at Oregon State +5.5 W Yes
Texas Tech/Oklahoma U70.5 L Yes
UAB +4.5 at WKU L Yes
UAB/WKU U49.5 W Yes
UCLA/Arizona O69 L No
UL-Lafayette -3.5 at Georgia Southern W No
UNLV at Wyoming -7 W Yes
Wake Forest -3 at Boston College P Yes
Arizona +4.5 at Colorado W Yes
Arkansas State -5 at Georgia State L Yes
Ball State +9 at NIU W Yes
Baylor +5.5 (-115) at Kansas State W Yes
Baylor/Kansas State U54 W Yes
Cal at Oregon -14 L Yes
Cal/Oregon U47 W Yes
Illinois +14.5 at Minnesota L Yes
Illinois/Minnesota O55.5 W Yes
Iowa +7 at Michigan P Yes
Liberty -4.5 at New Mexico State W No
Liberty/NMSU U63 W No
Marshall at MTSU +8.5 W Yes
Marshall/Middle Tennessee O56.5 L No
Memphis -14.5 at ULM W Yes
Ohio at Buffalo +4 W Yes
Oklahoma State/Texas Tech U68 L Yes
Purdue at Penn State -17 W Yes
Purdue/Penn State O58.5 L No
San Diego State -6 (-105) at Colorado State W Even
Tulane +1 at Army W Yes
Tulane/Army O45.5 W No
USF at UConn +14.5 L Yes
Utah State +28 at LSU L Yes
Virginia Tech at Miami -8.5 L Yes
Washington -13 (-115) at Stanford L No
Western Kentucky PK at Old Dominion W Yes
WMU +4.5 at Toledo L Yes
San Jose State +7.5 at Nevada W Yes
Charlotte at FIU -2 W Yes
Middle Tennessee at FAU -9 (-115) W Yes
Iowa State -7.5 at West Virginia W Yes
BYU at USF +6.5 W Yes
Colorado State at New Mexico +7 L Yes
Louisville +9 at Wake Forest W Yes
Maryland -2 at Purdue L Yes
North Texas +5 at Southern Miss L Yes
Nebraska at Minnesota -6.5 W Yes
Penn State -2.5 at Iowa W Yes
Alabama at Texas A&M +18 L Yes
Oklahoma -10 v. Texas L Yes
Florida +14 at LSU P Even
Cincinnati at Houston +7.5 L No
ULM at Texas State -1 L No
Colorado State/New Mexico U70 W No
BYU/USF U53.5 W No
FSu at Clemson -16 (1H) W No
Memphis/Temple U52.5 L No
Texas Tech/Baylor U58 L No
Army/WKU O41.5 L No
Ohio State at Northwestern Team Total U6 (-129) 1H W Yes
Auburn at Arkansas Team Total Under 7.5 (-105) 1H W Yes
Duke Team Total Under 10 (-115) 1H at Virginia W Even
East Carolina/UCF Under 62 L No
Indiana at Maryland Under 57.5 L No
Tennessee/Alabama Under 61.5 W No
NC State at Boston College Over 53.5 W No
Army at Georgia State Over 56 L No
Florida State at Wake Forest Over 67.5 L Yes
NIU at Miami (OH) Over 47.5 W Yes
Old Dominion/UAB Under 43 L Yes
Purdue/Iowa Over 47 L Yes
Pitt/Syracuse Under 54 W Yes
WVU/Oklahoma Under 65 L Yes
Middle Tennessee State at North Texas Over 57.5 W Yes
Nevada/Utah State Under 63 W Yes
UNC/VT Over 54.5 W Yes
Oregon/Washington Under 56 L Yes
FSU +4 at Wake Forest W Yes
Boise State -2.5 at BYU L Yes
Missouri -17.5 (-120) at Vanderbilt L Yes
Indiana -2.5 at Maryland W Yes
Air Force -1 at Hawaii W Yes
San Diego State -6.5 (-115) at San Jose State W Yes
Buffalo at Akron +18 L Yes
UTEP at FIU -20.5 L Yes
Northern Illinois at Miami (Ohio) +3 (-105) W Yes
Oregon at Washington +3 (-115) L Even
Oregon State +10.5 (-115) at Cal W Even
Coastal Carolina +6.5 at Georgia Southern W No
UNC at Virginia Tech +3.5 (-105) W No
Georgia Tech at Miami -19.5 L No
Baylor +4 at Oklahoma State W No
SMU at Houston +14 (-105) W Yes
Oklahoma at Kansas State +24 W Yes
Iowa -8.5 at Northwestern W Yes
App State -24 (-115) at South Alabama W Even
USC at Colorado Over 59.5 W Yes
Miami +3 at Pitt W No
Miami at Pitt Under 46 W Yes
Ohio +2.5 at Ball State W Even
Indiana -2 at Nebraska W No
Tulane at Navy -2.5 (-115) W Yes
Auburn +12.5 at LSU W Yes
Arizona State at UCLA +3 (+105) W Yes
Arkansas at Alabama Under 60 W Yes
Utah State at Air Force -2.5 W Yes
Washington State +15.5 at Oregon W Yes
Eastern Michigan +3 (-115) at Toledo P Yes
San Jose State at Army -9 L Yes
Illinois at Purdue Over 57.5 L No
Liberty -4 at Rutgers L Yes
South Carolina at Tennessee Under 21 Team Total (-115) L Even
Central Michigan +4.5 at Buffalo L Yes
Syracuse +10.5 at Florida State L Even
Akron +25.5 at NIU L Yes
Uconn at UMass +10.5 L Yes
FIU -2.5 at Middle Tennessee State L No
Penn State at Michigan State Over 43 L No
Oklahoma State at Iowa State -7 L Yes
Texas Tech -4 (-105) at Kansas L Yes
UCF at Temple Under 62.5 L Yes
Notre Dame +4 at Michigan L Yes
Texas State +13 at Arkansas State L Yes
Memphis -8.5 at Tulsa L Yes
San Diego State -10 (-115) at UNLV L Yes
Middle Tennessee at Charlotte Over 60 L Yes
BYU +8 (-125) at Utah State W Yes
Michigan -16.5 at Maryland W Yes
Ole Miss at Auburn -16 L Yes
Buffalo at EMU Over 47.5 W Yes
Miami +6.5 at Florida State W Yes
Pitt at Georgia Tech Under 47 W No
SMU at Memphis -3 W Yes
Utah -1 at Washington W Yes
Arkansas State -1.5 at Louisiana Monroe W No
Army at Air Force Over 45 L Even
Boston College +4 at Syracuse W Yes
Marshall -10 at Rice W Yes
Virginia +3 (-115) at North Carolina W Yes
Northwestern at Indiana -12.5 W Yes
KSU at Kansas Over 56 L No
SMU/Memphis Under 68.5 L Yes
Florida State at BC +2 (-115) L Yes
UCF -12.5 at Tulsa L Yes
Utah State at Fresno State -2 L Yes
Liberty +20.5 at BYU W Yes
East Carolina +24.5 at SMU W Yes
Tennessee +3.5 at Kentucky W Yes
FSU at BC Over 63 W Yes
Wake Forest -1 at Virginia Tech L Yes
Georgia State -1.5 at Louisiana Monroe L Yes
Baylor -1 at TCU W Yes
Texas Tech -2 at West Virginia W Yes
UAB +8.5 at Southern Miss L Yes
UTSA at Old Dominion -2.5 (-105) L Yes
Louisville at Miami -6 (-105) W Yes
Washington State -8.5 at Cal L Yes
Penn State -6.5 at Minnesota L Even
South Alabama at Texas State -7.5 L No
Kansas State +6 at Texas W No
Buffalo at kent State +3 W No
UNC +4.5 at Pitt L Yes
UMass +40 at Northwestern W Yes
UTEP +20.5 (-115) at UAB L Yes
Wisconsin -13 at Nebraska W Yes
Kansas at Oklahoma State -17 W Yes
Michigan State at Michigan -12 W Yes
Memphis -9 at Houston W Yes
Stanford at Washington State -10 W Yes
Virginia Tech -5.5 at Georgia Tech W Yes
West Virginia at Kansas State -12 L Yes
Wyoming at Utah State -3 W Yes
UL-Lafayette -24 at South Alabama L Yes
Air Force -10 at Colorado W Yes
Appalachian State -11 at Georgia State W Yes
Cincinnati -9.5 at USF L Yes
Louisville at NC State +4 L Even
USC -4 at Cal W Even
Minnesota -7 at Northwestern W Yes
Oklahoma State at West Virginia Under 61 (-114) W Yes
Duke/Wake Forest Under 54.5 L Yes
UCLA at USC -10 W Yes
Eastern Michigan +7 at NIU W Yes
Illinois at Iowa -12 L Yes
Penn State/Ohio State Over 55 (-118) L Yes
Kansas at Iowa State -23 L Yes
Colorado State +7.5 at Wyoming L Yes
Temple/Cincinnati Under 48 W Yes
FAU -18.5 at UTSA W Yes
SDSU +3 at Hawaii P Yes
Texas A&M +15.5 at Georgia W Yes
UCF -4.5 at Tulane L Yes
Miami -18.5 v. FIU (neutral site) L Yes
Troy +15 at UL Lafayette L Yes
Syracuse +10 at Louisville L Yes
NC State PK at Georgia Tech L Yes
Pitt at Virginia Tech -2 W Yes
North Texas -5 at Rice L Yes
Ball State -2 at Kent State L Yes
Washington -13.5 at Colorado L Yes
Memphis -14 (-115) at USF W Yes
Coastal Carolina +6 at ULM W Even
SJSU at UNLV +7 W Even
Penn State +19 at Ohio State W No
Georgia Southern at Arkansas State -2 W No
ECU at UConn +14.5 W No
Cal at Stanford -1.5 L No
Boise State/Utah State Under 52 L No
Houston +4.5 at Tulsa W No
North Carolina -6.5 at NC State W Yes
Miami -4.5 at Duke L Yes
Western Michigan -6 at NIU L Yes
Notre Dame -14.5 at Stanford W Yes
New Mexico State at Liberty -13 W Yes
Indiana -5 at Purdue L Yes
UTSA at Louisiana Tech -20 L Yes
West Virginia at TCU -12.5 L Yes
Tulane +4.5 at SMU L Yes
Iowa -3 at Nebraska P Yes
Army +3 at Hawaii L Yes
Miami (Ohio) at Ball State -3 (-105) W Yes
Boston College +8.5 at Pitt W Even
Baylor -14 at Kansas W Even
Alabama at Auburn +3.5 W Even
Wisconsin at Minnesota +3.5 L Even
Arizona at Arizona State -12.5 L Even
USF at UCF -24.5 W No
Wake Forest at Syracuse +6 W No
Fresno State +2 at San Jose State W No
Arkansas State -11 at South Alabama L No
Florida State at Florida -18 W No
Virginia Tech at Virginia PK W No
Ole Miss at Mississippi State PK W No
Texas Tech at Texas -10.5 W No
Georgia at LSU Under 28 (-115) 1H W Even
LSU -3.5 (-105) v. Georgia W Yes
Miami (Ohio) at Central Michigan -2.5 L Yes
Baylor +10 v. Oklahoma W Yes
UL Lafayette +6.5 at Appalachian State L Yes
Cincinnati at Memphis -10.5 L No
Utah -3 (-115) v. Oregon L Yes
UAB at FAU -6.5 W Yes
Tracking Bud’s bets for 2019.